Posts Tagged ‘albemarle county’

I am going to go on the air on Saturday morning with Michael Guthrie to discuss the first half of 2011 real estate market data. I’ve checked out the CAAR Market Report and prepared my own analysis that I follow to guide me in assisting my clients.

At this level, I like to keep it simple. Here are my take-aways from the broad overview this data represents. My analysis is for Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna and Greene combined.

The inventory is continuing to decline year over year. Slowly. Closed sales year over year are off by 9% but the gap is closing. By the end of the year I think closed sales will be on pace with last year. Contracts were a dead heat for both resales and new homes this year over last.  This is all just more evidence the tax credit last year rearranged some of the sales. Median price year over year has declined. Foreclosure and short sale activity as a percentage of sales is up about 5% year over year.

What does all of this mean? It means we’ve had two first halves of the last two years with relatively consistent activity. There’s still supply that favors buyers. Short sales and foreclosures are still having a significant impact on our area. But all of this is just general information. There are areas that are seeing stronger sales and more stable pricing than others. There are homes that have been updated or very well maintained that are doing better than the market. The builders are finding success with new orders for energy efficient homes.

The point is this. You need to get information pertinent to your situation to make good decisions.  If you are considering a purchase, take the time to understand the market. Take the time to understand renting vs. owning and the affordability available to you now. If you are considering selling or need to sell, get trusted advice and follow it.

 If I can be of assistance, don’t hesitate to contact me.

I keep a variety of spreadsheets in which I monitor components of our market that are important indicators to me.  All information is derived from the CAAR MLS.

The Charlottesville Area in these stats is defined as Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene combined.

Active Inventory Area All Types:  JUNE 7.  2010: 1878   2011: 1786 

Active Inventory Short Sale/Lender Owned: JUNE 7.  2010: 114  2011: 130

Contracts YTD Thru May Area: 

2010: 1028   (18% New Construction) (12% Short Sale/Foreclosure)

2011: 983       (17% New Construction) (19% Short Sale/Foreclosure)

We are  a few months away from seeing data that won’t be compared to tax credit influenced activity. Year over  year, contracts in April were off 32%. May was up 49%. But if you look at YTD comparison, contracts were within 4%. Sales activity could possibly be up as compared to 2010 by the end of June. Year over year, inventory has edged down slightly. Contracts for new homes are roughly flat. However, short sales and foreclosures as a percentage of sales activity increased.  16%  of contracts reported to the MLS for 2010 were flagged short sale or foreclosure. Year to date, 19% of contracts reported are flagged this way.

If you are on the market to sell your home or thinking of selling your home, these statistics are important to consider in your segment of the market. This market is still very price sensitive. Roughly 2 out of every 5 sales is a new home or a distressed sale. Sales activity seems to be leveling off with the tax credit securely in the rear view mirror. Inventory is still in favor of the buyer.  A comparative sales analysis is important, but an absorption rate analysis is just as vital to creating a successful plan to sell your home.

Just a little past their two year anniversary, Piedmont Realty and Construction is expanding their offering.  This is consistent with why I think they have been successful.  Drew Holzwarth continues to innovate and stay relevant.  More on the new offering in a moment.

Tracking new home sales in the area, I see Piedmont continuing to grow their market share.  One reason is innovation. Piedmont is constantly trying to improve their offering. The latest innovation? Every Earth Friendly Piedmont home now comes standard with a Trane hybridHVAC system. This is remarkable and going to save their owners thousands of dollars over the life of the home.  Other 2011 improvements include quiet close cabinet doors, new double hung low-E windows, and tank-less water heaters.

Another reason for their continued success is finding segments of the market under served and customizing an offering that adds value to that segment of the market. I refer to this as staying relevant. Even after two years, I find myself impressed by the depth of experience that allows them to stay relevant.

This brings me to the topic of this post. Piedmont Realty and Construction is developing and introducing what will be known as their Estate Series of homes. Starting with the Keswick (tour below), Piedmont is now serving the $800k-$1.5M range by offering custom homes in Albemarle County communities like Glenmore, Ragged Mountain Farm, South Ivy Estates, and Old Trail. With two homes over $1M currently under construction in Old Trail, Piedmont is proving their capabilities once again in this new price range.

Check out The Keswick.

I saw this article on the Virginia Association REALTORS blog this morning and wanted to share. Written by a REALTOR from the New River Valley, its a nice conversation starter regarding home inspections.

Check it out here: Home Inspections

I have lots of ideas for information I’d like to share via this forum. Sometimes I struggle to find the time or the energy to organize my thoughts and get them posted here. There is a lot going on right now. I wanted to take the opportunity to share some information I have come across networking with agents, builders, buyers and sellers over the last 30 days. Most of my insight comes from client specific analysis rather than exploratory macro analysis. I find it to be much more telling as I attempt to give advice that will help my clients achieve their goals. In no particular order:

1. There are a lot of sellers and agents in preparation mode for the Spring Market. The story of this year will be told by the pace of new listings coming to the market, the pricing of this inventory, and the reception of these new listings (and their pricing) by the buyers in waiting.
2. There is absolutely pent up demand and buyers in waiting. One barometer I use are the statistics provided from the 30+ virtual tours I have living on the internet at any point in time.  Average total views: NOV 131 DEC 100 JAN 315….First week of FEB 602. 
3. I talk to a lot of agents who advise their sellers to wait to list. I advise the opposite. The main reason is that I want my seller clients to be ready so we can hit the market with our best presentation when we want to hit the market. The first showing of your home is online. I am constantly disappointed in the presentation others are making online. Its vital to selling your home in a competitive environment. The online showings start before the in person showings. Be ready.
4. January Contracts 2010/2011  Albemarle 79/91  Charlottesville 31/24  Fluvanna 27/26  Greene 15/15 
5. January New Listings 2010/2011  Albemarle 200/188  Charlottesville 75/49  Fluvanna 102/70  Greene 42/48
6. Sales vs. New Listings is a indicator I will follow closely this year.  Absorption rate may be the most important factor if you are a motivated seller that NEEDS to sell.
7. There have been a similar number of sales in the $1M-$2M range each of the last 3 years. 2008-35  2009-28 2010-31.
8. In the 90 days of NOV-JAN, there were 23 new home (detached) contracts in Belvedere. 15 were with Piedmont. I’m still trying to figure out what this means and keep a close eye on new home sales numbers. In my opinion, the last 90 days have caused upward pressure on new home pricing. I have already noticed “pockets” of increased values in unimproved lot values. Unimproved lot values and new construction leads the way.  This could be seasonal and temporary.
9. Many of the buyers I am meeting are evaluating their options as they pertain to renting vs. buying.
10. With 3 reservations “pre-marketing”, I think the 11 new townhome lots of Belvedere are the best townhome opportunity of the spring market. I think Avinity is going to be well recieved as well.
11. Last year in Western Ridge, roughly 1 out 2 listings actually sold. It’s still a very, very competitive environment to sell a home.

So that’s my update for now. I’m not trying to draw any conclusions here or make any predictions. Understanding this market is an ongoing conversation. Feel free to contact me for a discussion on any topics important to you and your situation.

I recently wrote a post on Belvedere and why I thought it’s time had arrived. There is another master planned community in the Charlottesville area getting a lot of attention as well. Old Trail Village is a much larger venue, but experiencing success for a lot of the same reasons as Belvedere. There was a recent article written by Charlottesville Tomorrow, picked up by The Daily Progress, on Old Trail’s 2010 success. Read it here.

Old Trail is a little further along in terms of infrastructure and amenity completion, but very young in the grand scheme of what this development will become. The article above has caused a lot of conversations about Old Trail in the past week, so I thought I would break down the sales a little more.

The breakdown below will be of the 61 sales as reported to the CAAR MLS in 2010. Beights Development is reporting 70 sales and closings and I have no reason to doubt that number. The 61 sales represents sales reported to the MLS by contract date. When following new construction stats on an annual basis, you have to choose to look at closed sales or contract dates since there is usually a 4-6 month lag for construction. I choose to look by contract date since that is more of a leading indicator. Custom sales that are not reported to the MLS continue to occur. These sales are usually on the higher end. That is, $500k+. I can identify 4 under construction now just driving through the community.  Old Trail is a place where lower volume, custom home builders are still finding success, since a homeowner can buy a lot and then choose a builder.

The resale market. 13 of the 61 sales were not new construction. Of these sales 2 were short sales and 4 were foreclosures. That’s a relatively large percentage of the non-new construction sales as distressed. I think there are two reasons. Old Trail had a lot of sales at the top of the market and there aren’t many homes for sale here in general.  For example, as of today, there are just 5 resale listings under $1 million dollars.

The new home market. 48 sales. 13 attached and 35 detached. 

Craig Builders is responsible for the townhome sales. 3 story townhomes with 2 car garages starting at $239,900.

Of the 35 detached sales, 5 were under $300k, 11 were in the $300′s, 10 in the $400′s, and the remainder over $500k. The builders included Piedmont Realty and Construction, Craig Builders, Stonehaus Residential, Peak Builders, Eagle Construction, and Southern Development Homes.

This is what I think is key for Old Trail. A wide variety of offerings across a broad price range. Not many communities have pulled this off. If you are interested in the Charlottesville area new home market or Old Trail specifically, I’m here to help you understand your options.  I’ve recently become an Old Trail resident and happy to discuss my personal experience.

I have been involved with Belvedere since working from a tent on Rio Road prior to the roads being paved or any homes being started.  I’ve been a huge fan of the overall concept from the beginning.  New urbanist concepts and a commitment to green building practices are very interesting to me and relevant to the market. I was impressed immediately in 2008 by the number of people I met who thought the concept was great, but weren’t in a position to move.  I knew all along and have shared many times that I think Belvedere’s success is only matter of time.  Here’s why:

1. Location. Its in the urban ring. Right now, there are really no new home communities as centrally located to all things  Albemarle and Charlottesville as Belvedere.  The people I am meeting interested in Belvedere now are making a lifestyle decision to give up the larger, rural lot in favor of a location that saves them time and fits their current lifestyle and the quicker pace we all seem to be living these days.
2. Smaller lots and higher density. Its true, many visit Belvedere and are immediately discouraged by the size of the lots. Its definitely not for everyone. However, many are looking for less maintenance in their lives and maybe, more importantly, community. I’ve learned that the deisgn of a community has a direct impact on the relationships that are  formed among the residents. People are choosing Belvedere because they want to know their neighbors and want to interact with them. I’ve never seen a community of new homeowners come together faster than what I have seen at Belvedere.
3. Energy Efficiency. The green building trends we hear so much about are more than just trends. Its a shift in building science that is here to stay. Better practices in home building are leading to better indoor air quality, lower utility expenses, and more comfortable homes.  Every home at Belvedere is Earthcraft certified.  Stonehaus Development should be commended for this. 
4. Home Design. Another side effect of the economic downtown is a shift in consumer demand. Huge houses are out, and smaller, better designed homes are in. Add in zoning that allows homeowners to earn income with legal residences or businesses over their garage, and you have a recipe for success.
5. Walking Trails. People still want to get outside and exercise. This is an exceptional component, not to mention the future with SOCA and more recreational space.

Watching what has occurred in 2010 at Belvedere, I’m starting to get the feeling the time for Belvedere has arrived. With 31 homes put under contract in 2010, the answer may be obvious. The last 60 days of 2010 saw 12 contracts and the activity hasn’t slowed since. There are now just 33 available detached home sites in Phase 1 remaining.  The new apartment complex (The Reserve at Belvedere) is set to break ground next month. The conversation regarding the town center makes it seem like its time may really be here as well, with unofficial estimates for a late 2011 ground breaking.

There are now 5 builders actively marketing and selling homes in Belvedere:

1. Piedmont Realty and Construction
2. Stonehaus Residential
3. Gibson Homes
4. Southern Development Homes
5. Eagle Construction of Virginia

Home prices start in the $200′s and there is a variety of home styles and types available. There are currently 7 detached “spec” homes for sale. Later this spring, Piedmont will be offering 11 newly developed townhome sites on the Village Green. If you are in the market for a towhome in 2011 and appreciate the concept of Belvedere, these may be the best opportunity of the year.

If you are interested in Belvedere and the prospect of building a new home, I would welcome the opportunity to share my experience and insight to your process to determine if Belvedere is right for you, and if so, how to choose the right builder fit for your budget, timeline, and needs.

If you are interested, one of the original residents is a blogger. Check out her blog here.

There’s a new community just under way in Albemarle County just outside of the city limits of Charlottesville. Its called Avinity and it will feature 100 townhomes located on Avon Street adjacent to Cale Elementary. Site work has started. I visited the site this morning to get a feel for the progress of the site work and the surroundings. Check it out.

Check out the site plan here.

I’ll be in charge of sales for Piedmont Realty and Construction. Currently I am working out of  The Piedmont Model Home at Poplar Square. (Located just off Ivy Road behind the Kluge Children’s Rehabilition Center) These townhomes are very similar to what will be built at Avinity. Feel free to contact me or stop by to learn more about Avinity at your convenience, Tuesday-Sunday from 12-5.

Subscribe to my blog above for future updates on the progress of Avinity.